Trump Will Win
The 2016 late night results caught most by surprise, but not his supporters. They always believed their horse would win the race. After all, it was the mainstream media that exploited Donald Trump’s campaignñ; overexposed him. Take for instance, CNN. In 2016 CNN would mute their coverage of a Bernie Sanders’ rally to focus on a Trump rally, 2 hours before it began. On one side of the screen, Bernie Sanders muted while delivering a speech. On the other side, a close up of Trump’s empty podium as pundits speculated on what outrageous comment would Trump make that time. That’s how CNN gave us Trump. They did so thinking that a fringe candidate would never win, while promoting Hillary Clinton’s inevitability.
This time, the campaign coverage has been somehow different (Mainly due to the pandemic), however the scenario is quite similar. Trump is once again portrayed as the underdog. Admittedly, Joe Biden is in a much better position only because he is not Hillary. But his best poll numbers do not assure his supporters that Uncle Joe will win. Trump campaigned strategically. He knows he won’t win the popular vote but the electoral college. That’s what he’s working for and it might just work… again.
Trumo will win because Biden is not Obama.Without being an actual African-American (his black heritage doesn’t come from black slaves in the US) Barack Obama secured the broad black vote in both 2008 and 2012. But this time is different. He wants people to focus on his eight years as vice president rather than his decades in the senate and the era of mass incarceration. Thus even with the broad black vote leaning towards Biden, around 20% of black men are siding with Trump which might make a difference in key swing state districts.
Aside from black voters, Latinos who are now the largest minority and the second fastest growing ethnic group in the US, are also naturally conservatives. Despite having called Mexicans “Rapists” and offended hispanics in general with other comments, Trump got more latino votes than Mitt Romney in 2012. This is possible because latinos, among other things, are very Christian. Thus most latinos don’t believe in abortion rights. Us, latinos, come from countries ruled by ‘strong men’. Donald Trump’s obsession with having everything his way isn’t new to us nor entirely negative. Additionally, latinos in Sout Florida are largely anti-leftists, especially those who migrated from Venezuela in the past 10 years. It was not a surprise that as early as last night, the Don had already won that state.
Beyond racial background, all who voted for Trump in 2016 did so motivated by one or more of his promises. Hence one of the 2020 campaign slogans is “Promises kept”. Reelections are referendums on the incumbent, and from that perspective, Trump is well positioned since he has delivered to his base. Thanks to this administration, the conservative movement has been vindicated decades of culture war losses, The country withdrew from the Paris agreement and the Iran nuclear deal, ISIS is crushed, the embassy in Israel was moved from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and most importantly, Trump delivered on the most game-changing matter; he’s filled the Supreme Court with conservative judges. Now conservative will have a 6-3 majority for decades to come.
Even ‘never Trumpers’ ought to recognize that, as much as they dislike him or some of his controversial policies, the president has been consistent.
The Donald Trump that came down the escalator in 2015 is the same today. He hasn’t changed a bit. The electoral college majority got what it wanted. These are the rules that might grant the president another four-year term, without the popular vote and that’s okay. The legitimacy of an electoral college victory cannot be put into question because both parties and candidates agreed to those set of rules.
Unfortunately, the Covid-19 pandemic has diminished the administration from boasting about the economy. But that is not to say that 2016 trump voters are discouraged by it. Only the surge in-mail votes pose a threat to Trump’s reelection. Hence republicans will need a massive turnout on November 3rd.
As Niall Ferguson says “Complex civilizations (...) operate on the edge of chaos” Trump’s political career has thrived despite numerous scandals which would have taken down any other politician. All in all, 2016 proved Trump’s inevitability. It really doesn’t matter what Trumps says or does, he’s unstoppable.
With the electoral college system on his side, a 6-3 supreme court, in case a 2000’s Florida takes place and provided that the Obama coalition falls again, Trump will win.
Biden Will Win
Biden is not Trump. That's it. I rest my case. For many voters not being Trump is the single qualification that really matters. Americans are fed up.
Luckily, Uncle Joe is up in the polls. Nate Silverman’s Fivefortyeight website gives Biden a 89 in 100 chance of winning. Though we won’t see it happen until the end of the week. The mail-in vote surge is so huge that the winner won’t be declared in days, if not weeks, which has both campaigns in a state of panic. Though not even the 2016 trauma can erase a 9% lead.
It is normal for campaigns that are leading in the polls to panic, but this year both democrats and republicans are in denial. On one side, democrats just can’t believe Uncle Joe is up in the polls or that it would translate into an actual victory. On the other side, Trump followers are so satisfied with his cult leader that they’ve shown confidence the electorate won’t punish him this time around.
What Trump die-hards can’t seem to understand is that, outside their information bubble, the rest of American and the world despise this abomination of a president. People are tired of his lack of leadership, cruelty and overall unfitness for the job.
Trump was trailing in the polls and more importantly, more people are voting this year. Mail-in votes increased in record numbers. In many places, surpassing the 2016 total turnout which, according to the conventional wisdom, benefits democrats.
After 2016, pollsters received lots of criticism, but polling didn’t become obsolete. On the contrary, pollsters had to evaluate their methods, namely to collect more rural data and not to declare a verdict when numbers are so close.
Over the past four years we have witnessed how Trump's approval rating has remained steadily low. While most Americans despise him, his base is unshaken because there’s no convincing those people. Fox News and Breibart brainwashed them to believe that everything this administration does is good or justifiable. Ironically this works on Biden’s advantage. With fringe republicans supporting Trump, Biden gets to attract moderate conservatives.
A candidate like the beloved Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren would have worsened the country’s philosophical divide. Biden on the other hand, is well in the center; what some progressives would call “republican light”. He’s got a mixed resume. A moderate (Conservative) past in the senate and Obama’s seal of approval. Along with the torment of 4 more years of Trump, all the evidence should translate into swing voters favoring Uncle Joe.
The Obama-Biden administration brought economic stability, one which Trump has profited from. However with his atrocious handling of the Covid-19 crisis, Trump can no longer boast about the economy. As sad as it sounds, the pandemic might well benefit the Biden-Harris ticket. It could generate the tipping point that will define who gets to reside on 1600 Pennsylvania Ave until January 2024.
Biden will win because, after all, Obama care is popular. No one in their right mind (republicans) would try to strip people from healthcare coverage in the midst of a pandemic. Yet Trump and the Republicans are trying to do so as early as next week. Hence, Medicare for all didn’t have to be one of his campaign promises. The mere fact that if Trump wins millions could lose their insurance is enough motivation for voting blue.
Biden says that he will be president of all Americans, not just Democrats. Though make no mistake, he is much more of a ‘centrist’ than Hillary was, only that people do not dislike him. This time, progressives, who sat in their homes on the last presidential election, have now understood that elections have consequences. America is far from shifting sharply to the left, but at least there is a chance for decency and common sense to be restored.
For many, he remains the lesser of two evils, but even those who think so are working to get him elected. Progressives are volunteering everywhere, phone banking, canvassing.
Biden will win because the new generation is on his side. The Gen-Z are now voting and they will vote blue. This could change drastically the outcome in swing states like Florida, where after the Parkland massacre, students told republicans they will vote them out in 2020. Not surprisingly, they have been on the road, raising awareness on issues that intersect with the democratic agenda. .
Biden will win because, unlike 2016, Americans are not choosing which candidate they hate the least. He’s likeable, relatable and has not been involved in immoral scandals. On the contrary, Biden is relatable because, like many Americans, he has had his fair share of suffering.
As long as the Obama coalition stands; as long as he’s able to win Pennsylvania or Michigan (why not both?) Biden will become the 46th president of the United States of America.
